Outlook for the Arizona orange industry

Published in 1972

Domestic consumption of oranges, in per capita terms, has shown a downward trend since World War II. Orange prices have exhibited a similar secular decline which, for producer's profitability, is unfavorable. Understanding the factors which influence Arizona orange prices would be of distinct importance to the industry. The purposes of this thesis are to determine the factors which affect Arizona orange prices and to develop supply relationships such that price forecasts may be made and evaluated in the light of the possible future returns to Arizona orange producers. These purposes were not completely fulfilled due to difficulties in estimating the supply relationships. Several factors are suggested as important variables influencing Arizona Valencia orange prices. These variables include: the quantities of oranges produced in Arizona and in other producing areas (both aggregate and varietal production) , the general level of economic activity, the production of substitute products, population, and trend. On the supply side, several variables are suggested as relevant: a measure of producer profitability, trend, a dummy variable to account for random influences due to weather, and a measure of input costs

AZU_TD_BOX278_E9791_1972_132.pdf (2.34 MB)

Author(s)

Publication Date