Forecasting egg prices for the Los Angeles market

Published in 1972

The egg industry of the United States has experienced fluctuating egg prices over the past years« Fluctuation in production followed by price variations and revenue changes has created a problem of "boom or bust" in the industry. The objective of this thesis is to quantify the relationships in the poultry egg industry with special emphasis on forecasting prices of eggs in Los Angeles. If successful, the forecast model would provide producers with a tool to plan production so as to maximize net return or minimize losses. Method of analysis was stepwise multiple regression using ordinary least squares analysis. Secondary data were used and each of the models was lagged three-quarters and based on 25 observations, from the first quarter of 1964 to the first quarter of 1970. A single equation model was developed which was a better predictor of price than the more complex multi-equation models analyzed. The correlation coefficient (r) between actual and predicted prices for the single equation model was approximately .89 or in terms of the coefficient of determination (R^2 ), approximately .79. Regional as well as national variables were evaluated to determine if any local factors affected Los Angeles prices. A refitting of the selected forecast model periodically by updating the sample period is of considerable importance because predicting too far beyond the sample time period may significantly affect the structural coefficients and yield unreliable and poor forecasts.

AZU_TD_BOX62_E9791_1972_157.pdf (2.08 MB)

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