Fiscal impacts of forest-rangeland policies on local communities: an empirical study of the Flagstaff, Arizona trade area

Published in 1979

United States Forest Service policies which will impact on local sustaining industries in the Flagstaff Trade Area are discerned. Estimates of impacts on employment and income distribution resulting from these policies are made utilizing employment elasticities derived from a "from-to" model of the area. Changes in sales and property tax revenues and impacts on the demand for local public goods and services are also appraised. The timber and range policies were found to be significantly regressive with respect to income distribution. The recreation policy to increase tourism was progressive. Much of the additional employment is, however, highly seasonal. The net impact of the combined policies is a 1.9% increase in total area employment. The net impact of each policy on supply of government revenues is quite small (relative to the overall budget). The net result of all three policies is an estimated increase of $81,325 in revenues. No significant change in the demand for or ability to provide public goods and services due to the implementation of the specified policies is expected. Policy impacts vary among areas of differing economic structure. This was illustrated via a brief analysis of another area. Rather than an overall "stabilizing" effect, which was the net result in the primary study area, the net effect in this second area was a net decline in area employment. Policy implications for the Forest Service, state and local government agencies, and local planners are presented.

AZU_TD_BOX288_E9791_1979_22.pdf (1.44 MB)

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